Dan's Papers - March 7, 2008

Whether you subscribe to the idea that the United States' economy is headed for or already in a recession or not, the fact is the dollar currently buys only about 0.67 Euro, and here we are talking about European wines! Because of this, Long Island wines will become really great bargains, and some already are. As for Bordeaux and other imported wines, we're in for some interesting times. So let the hunt begin for value, wherever we can find it.

My recent experiences with the price escalation of European wines - 145 percent in some cases - have been shocking, especially in Bordeaux 2005 and 2006 (ouch!), Burgundy 2006 (be still my heart) and in-the-pipe-line Brunello and Barolo 2003 (the Italians really understand how to use a weak dollar and market pressure to their favor). Even 2004 Bordeaux is inching up in price for some of the prestige Chateaux, such as Lafite-Rothschild and Carruades de Lafite (Lafite's second label). The 2004 Chateau Lafite was released as a "future" in Spring/Summer of 2005 at prices in the $150 range, while the second label, Carruades, sold at a future price of about $35 a bottle. Any guesses how much these two are selling for now? The Chateau Lafite is selling in the $400 range and as high as $650 for one bottle only.

Now let's compare the 2004 to the 2005 and 2006 vintages. The 2005 half bottle of Ch. Lafite (yes, half) is selling for $843.99 and the full for $1600 at Zachy's. The 2005 Carruades de Lafite is just plain bizarre, selling for between $82 and $150 a bottle. While the Carruades is good, I would rather pay $85-$90 for 2004 Cos d'Estournel, the great second growth that is just across the street from Lafite. When it comes to 2006, the futures price for Chateau Lafite ranges from $550 a bottle to close to $800. So the question for those speculators out there is, will the 2006 price increase by 300 percent in the next two years as the 2004 did? I doubt it, but I don't think many people expected to see Carruades de Lafite selling for $150 a bottle after being on the market for less than two years either.

The issues of value and price concerning wines from Burgundy and Italy are not as stark, but neither are they as lucrative in the resale market. It is a complex market, and there are a few niche areas where great Burgundies escalate in value and, as with all wines, the critic's scores and opinions are of great influence. But with Burgundy and Italy there is not one critic whose opinion and scores are as nationally and internationally revered as those of Robert Parker Jr.'s are for Bordeaux. For Burgundy, the one critic that many industry professionals listen to is Allen Meadows, producer of the Burghound newsletter, but his is not exactly a household name. As a result, despite his expertise, his high scoring wines don't perform in the market as well as a Burgundy scored highly by David Schildknecht. Who, you ask? Mr. Schildknecht is a critic that works for Robert Parker's Wine Advocate (and covers several regions in addition to Burgundy) so he is associated with Robert Parker and hence gets more readership than Allen Meadows, who only rates Burgundy.

Got it? Yeah, I'm having trouble with it, too. For instance, Jean Grivot and Anne Francoise Gros were rated similarly by Mr. Meadows (93-96 and 92-94, respectively), while Grivot was rated by Mr. Schildknecht (96-97) and the Gros was not rated at all. The resulting prices: Grivot Richebourg sells for $1195, at a minimum, and the AF Gros goes for about $500. So what's a point or two between friends and neighbors (Richebourg vineyard is less than 20 acres)? Oh, about $500.

On this side of the pond you'll find some excellent values on Long Island. I'm very excited about the outlook for the 2007 vintage here along with the currently available 2005. One 2005 wine to look for is the Bedell Merlot, which is sold out at the winery but still available at a few New York stores, including Sherry-Lehmann, for $18.95. Out here most stores have sold out and I have recommended some of my clients and friends replace it with the 2005 Corey Creek Cabernet Franc that sells for $23, or the 2005 Paumanok Festival Red ($15), both available at Hamptons Wine Shoppe in Westhampton.

So what's all this mean for the wine consumer? My thoughts are these. Wandering through a wine store or wine list without some guidance or knowledge can result in many more costly mistakes than in the past. But there will also be some bargains as older wines will sometimes be less expensive than newer wines that need to be aged a bit. Some education on these matters can go a long way. The price of taking most wine courses will quickly offset the potential of purchasing $25-plus wines that are disappointing.

As for our local wines, for me there is finally potential for them to stand out as values as long as the producers don't catch the California prestige decease. What do I mean by this? Say a producer in Napa or Sonoma makes a very good Cabernet Sauvignon. Then they look at the price of Lafite or Latour and say, heck, if those are selling for $1000 a bottle, why can't I charge $200-$300 for mine! So much for value.

Christopher Miller will lead Long Island's first certification courses for wine captains and advanced sommeliers beginning March 24 at the Viking Cooking School at Loaves and Fishes Cookshop in Garden City. Call (516) 877-1010 for details.

Chris Miller, senior wine writer for Dan's Papers "Wine Guides," is a graduate of the Culinary Institute of America, an Advanced Sommelier with the Court of Master Sommeliers, a wine consultant for Sherry-Lehmann and a wine educator.