Dan's Papers - August 24, 2007 - Wait Out Global Warming In The Hamptons

As the twenty first century moves on, global warming will worsen, as I am sure you know. Lucky for us, however, it will worsen faster elsewhere in the world than in the Hamptons. We are very lucky indeed.

This past week, a group called the National Center of Atmospheric Research based in Washington completed a study in which they merged the predictions of five different computer modelers around the world. Here are the results.

Hardest hit here in America will be California. In the rest of the world, the countries that border the Mediterranean - such as Italy, France, Egypt and Libya - are going to get it bad, as will Australia and Brazil.

One of the biggest changes in the weather will be in the tropical Pacific Ocean where the rains will come with greater frequency and volume. As a result, California and Australia will get more severe rainstorms, as will, for some reason, Brazil, even though it is on the opposite coast.

As for the Atlantic, the direction of the Gulf Stream will be slightly altered as it passes near to Africa, but the change which will also mean heavier downfalls of rain, which will mostly affect the Mediterranean region, especially the countries that border that sea.

As for the Atlantic coast of the United States, there is nothing especially interesting to report, except that there will be a greater tendency toward warmer night temperatures. By 2099, warm night temperatures will come about once a month, rather than once every six months as they do now. There will also be more heat waves in the summertime, but both the heat waves and the warm nights can be dealt with by the simple expedient of turning up the air conditioning. And that's that. Also, whether or not it is any comfort to anybody, these two changes will also be taking place in the rest of America at about the same pace as they will here. So the West Coast gets the quadruple whammy - more heat waves, warmer nights, more frequent rainstorms and more intense rainstorms. While we get only two of these problems.

The averaging out of the studies suggests that by 2099 the climate of New York City will be somewhat similar to what we have today in Savannah, Georgia. There will be more balmy shirt sleeve days, little or no snow, lots of flowers and foliage and some stands of palm trees in and around New York. Also a greater abundance of seals, wild parrots and even a flamingo or two.

"This notion of the greening of the planet... generally is a positive benefit," said Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville. "The earth will bloom."

But there are downsides. Fewer cold days means less skiing and sleigh riding and more days between the first and last frost, which will mean more bugs. But it will also mean more birds and wildlife, a longer growing season and a general sense of well being for everyone here on the East Coast what with the greater abundance of nature and all good things to eat as you might find in a semi-tropical area.

So it looks like a happy time for everybody here on the East End for the next ninety years or so. It's probably a good idea to brace ourselves for the influx of people fleeing the greater weather extremes in Italy, Spain, Egypt, Libya, Australia, Brazil and the South Seas. But what the hell. We can handle it. That's why we have the big lady with the torch in New York Harbor. We just have to change the inscription.

"Give us your damp, your moldy, your bug bitten, your rain soaked, surfing injured, your rained on, your bird pooped on, your poor..."

Just keep those air conditioners going. Stay away from the shoreline. Make sure your truck is tanked up with gas. And have yourself a beer. The Global Warming Refugees are coming and they'll have spending money. These will be the good times.